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With regard to Chinese household registration data (which are derived from a separate demographic system run by the Ministry of Public Security), the 2010 Census indicated that at least 13 million Chinese citizens lacked legal identity papers because they were born “out of hukou”, i.e., outside the locality that the state mandates to be their residence 3 (more on the hukou system shortly). Many errors in China’s population data are essentially politically induced-the data are deformed by mass misreporting due to ordinary people’s attempts to avoid the harsh consequences of Beijing’s various population control policies (using that term broadly). On the other hand, China has not yet achieved complete or near-complete vital registration, meaning that analysts must rely mainly on reconstructions of trends from censuses and “mini-censuses”-and these counts are far from error-free. Vastly more population information is available for China today than was the case for most of the Maoist era, when a virtual statistical blackout prevailed China today also has trained and groomed a large cadre of top-rate demographers and population economists who work in the nation’s universities, state-sponsored think tanks, and government. In the following pages we will try to show just how the realm of the possible is being reshaped in China by impending demographic changes over the decades immediately ahead.Ĭhina’s Current and Future Population: What We Know and How We Know Itīefore presenting the demographic projections underpinning this paper, we are obliged to address two basic questions about China’s demographic outlook: what do we know, and how do we know it? Answering these requires us to discuss data limitations today, and the intrinsic limitations of demographic projections for tomorrow.Ĭonsider first the limits of current Chinese population data.
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A less florid, more immediately defensible reformulation of that aphorism would be that “demographics slowly but unforgivingly alters the realm of the possible”. This is not to invoke the “demography is destiny” claim, often attributed to the 19 th Century French polymath Auguste Comte. Second: demographics and demographic change actually matter-to economic performance, social development, and in some measure as well arguably to such things as military potential, political stability, and international security. Population projections are far from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades they are most assuredly more reliable and empirically grounded than corresponding projections of economic change, much less political change or technological change. The reason, quite simply, is that the overwhelming majority of the people who will be living in China in (say) the year 2040 are already alive, living there today.
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1įirst: of all areas of inquiry of interest to us at this gathering about China’s future, it is perhaps China’s demographic future that is *least* uncertain over the coming generation. For any serious attempt to assess China’s future outlook, an examination of the country’s population prospects is not only advisable but absolutely indispensable.